Sweden were arguably handed the toughest draw in the World Cup 2018 play-offs but they can keep the tie competitive by getting a result against Italy at home this evening.
The Swedes know a result at home will be vital going into the return fixture in Milan, and they are in good form at the Friends Arena in Stockholm having won their three most recent competitive fixtures – including a 2-1 win over France.
Italy also boast a strong away record however, winning five of their last six games on the road and their only defeat has come in Spain, where they were well beaten 3-0 in a one-sided contest.
The Azzurri are the favourites to progress at 20/57 but they may well be satisfied with a draw in Sweden, knowing they can probably finish the job on home soil.
The draw pays out at 21/10 and is my top bet in this World Cup 2018 play-off.
There is the small matter of a friendly fixture between old rivals England and Germany this evening and I’m expecting the world champions to claim the bragging rights.
England boss Gareth Southgate is without a host of key men as Spurs pair Harry Kane and Dele Alli are both absent, as are Raheem Sterling, Jordan Henderson and Daniel Sturridge.
Germany are also without a few stars, most notably injured Bayern Munich keeper Manuel Neuer, but should still have the quality to claim a win and are 11/10 to come out on top, or 11/4 with a -1 handicap.