It’s that time of the week again where we dissect all the latest Champions League action and try to find some betting value in the process. Today, arguably the most intriguing clash of the UCL quarter finals is in focus as Paris Saint Germain take on Manchester City in the Parc des Princes on Wednesday evening.
Manchester City’s season certainly took a turn for the worse following the announcement of manager Manuel Pellegrini’s departure from the Etihad at the end of the 2015/2016 season. Since that fateful day back in early February, the Citizens lost a series of crucial matches in the Premier League which put paid to any chance of them challenging for a third domestic title in five seasons.
And despite cruising to victory away at Bournemouth at the weekend, City will certainly be wary of their Champions League opponents PSG on Wednesday after already witnessing them dispose of Premier League compatriots Chelsea with relative ease in the previous round.
With a 20+ points buffer between them and their nearest rivals AS Monaco in the Ligue 1 table, French outfit PSG romped to their 6th domestic title in style with a 9-0 win over Troyes three weeks ago. And despite both sides enjoying the benefits of what heavy foreign investment can bring in recent times, a look at Paris’ slightly more star-studded squad tells us they’re probably going to have the upper hand this week.
PSG: The signs are good for the home side with Marco Verratti remaining the Parisians only notable absence with a groin strain.
Man City: The Citizens however have plenty of cause for concern this week with Joe Hart, Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure all ruled out for Wednesday’s clash.
Where does the betting value lie?
The non-appearance of influential club captain Vincent Kompany (not to mention Hart and Toure) will come as a major blow to City this week. The Manchester club defensively, look a nervy side without the strong Belgian at the back, patrolling the Citizens’ rearguard.
We feel the lack of a stern defensive leader could cost City dearly in Paris and have our doubts that a centre back partnering of Nicolas Otamendi and Eliaquim Mangala would be able to cut the mustard with the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Angel Di Maria bearing down on them.
As a result, we’re backing PSG to win out in the Parc des Princes in very comfortable fashion Wednesday night and feel that at a price of over even money, backing them to win and over 2.5 goals to be scored in the game is a viable option.
Of course, their opponents City still have goal threats of their own in the form of Argentine striker Sergio Aguero so we wouldn’t be surprised to see them grab an away goal themselves which could prove to be crucial in the tie’s second leg.